Scenario specifications. The global issues are characterized by five groups of indicators: ▪ Social development includes energy access, poverty alleviation, income generation, food security, gender, inter-generation and lifestyle issues, ▪ Environmental issues are characterized by indicators of environmental pollution and land degradation from the energy production and use. At the global level the impacts of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures as well as of major chemical cycles are studied, ▪ Health impacts issue is studied at three levels, households, local/regional and global. These concentrate on impacts on health from different types of energy generation and transmission as well as on economic costs of energy-related issues are investigated, ▪ Security issues cover a range of topics such as regional cooperation, trade relations, global private sector dynamism, resource, infrastructure adequacy and system resilience, ▪ Economic issues include financing, innovation, investment flows, governance issues, barriers, policies and institutional framework for deployment of energy technologies. The GEA provides assessment of global and regional scenarios in light of the main question on how energy systems for sustainable future can be realized. This touches on three issues: major constraints related to resources, investment and technologies; physical uncertainties related to climate and resources and human uncertainty related to policy and development; capacity-building and investment needs for infrastructure development and technology innovation. The GEA provides assessment of urban and rural land use connected with energy generation, transmission and use. It evaluates as well land use in relation to competitive use for other goals such as food and fibre as well as land use for disposals of energy related waste.
Scenario specifications. The assessment uses ten categories to report its findings. Among them are such categories, relevant to land use, categories as coastal lands, forest, dryland, island, mountain, polar, cultivated and urban. Two of the scenarios involve proactive and two reactive environmental management policies. The environmental system models measure the consequences of a change in land cover or climate. The human system models examine the impacts of changes in ecosystems on production, consumption and investment decisions by households, or the economy-wide impacts of climate change on production of a particular sector. The integrated models assess environmental and human system linkages at global and sub-global scales. CLUE-S, IMAGE and SAfMA are the main models. The scenario includes four storylines: ▪ Global Orchestration (GO): a globally connected world with well-developed global markets and supra-national institutions to deal with global environmental problems and inequity, to protect and enhance global public goods and services. This scenario focuses on individual decision rather than on the state and uses regulation only where appropriate. Trade liberalization and free market are key issues. ▪ Order of Strength (OS): a world with fragmented connections with security and protection of regional markets and with little attention paid to the common good. The main issue is defence against economic insecurity, military and protection of lifestyles of the rich world by securing natural resources as critical for human well-being. The poorer countries are provided with some benefits but only in exchange for alliance. ▪ Adapting Mosaic (AM): a fragmented world resulting from discredited global institutions leads to the rise of local and regional initiatives supporting the common good. The trade barriers for goods and services increase but disappear for communication technologies. There is great regional variation in management techniques but global problems like climate change, marine fisheries and pollution get worse. ▪ TechnoGarden (TG): a globally connected world relying strongly on technology, also for solving environmental problems and global inequity. The ecosystems are highly managed and often engineered. The risks appear connected with large-scale human- made solutions.
Scenario specifications. The land use scenarios for future land use in Europe use the year 2000 as a base year and provides further scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080 for Europe, mainly the EU15, plus Norway and Switzerland. The ATEAM vulnerability assessment framework translates multiple scenarios of global change into their potential impacts and adaptive capacity changes on the basis of combined indicators and stakeholder dialogue. Vulnerability maps can then be developed for multiple scenarios and time-slices within the next century (Xxxxxxx et al., 2006).
Scenario specifications. The methodology applies several global economic and integrated assessment models, such as Global Economy Model (GTAP) and integrated assessment model (IMAGE), to account for the structure of land use change processes. It also applies the land use allocation model (CLUE). The global models take account of the effect of global level changes on European land use and evaluate the effects of changes in Europe on other parts of the world. The global economy and integrated assessment models capture the interaction between economy and natural resources.
Scenario specifications. The scenario’s storylines are based on the SAS approach (story-and-simulation)16, which was modified in terms of the stakeholders’ responsibility. The latter was upgraded from the traditional consultation role to a co-decision role. The scenarios were then designed in three iterative workshops. The stakeholders identified 20 key driving forces for land use types and land use change in Europe. These drivers (besides the ones addressing economy and population) were then aggregated to describe the scenarios:
Scenario specifications. The ALARM project developed three scenario narratives quantified by a mixture of partly integrated models, aiming at identifying pressures and drivers of biodiversity loss and deriving effective policy strategies (Xxxxxxxxxxx 2007, p.343). The project team drafted the scenario. It was discussed with the ALARM Consultative Forum, which is a body of stakeholders and scientists within the project consortium. ALARM identifies the following drivers, i.e. in this case, EU policies: ▪ Common agricultural policy (including fisheries and forestry), drives overuse ▪ Chemicals Policy, drives pollution ▪ Energy Policy, contributes to climate change and pollution ▪ Transport Policy, drives GHG emissions significantly as well as fragmentation ▪ Trade Policy, drives biological invasion ▪ Biotechnology, drives the release of genetically modified organisms (GMOa)
Scenario specifications. Even though the project used the ALARM scenarios it deserves separate mention due to the aspect of down-scaling and several other features that added value and might be relevant for the SafeLand project. The aim of the scenario work was to provide fine-scale projections of future land use in some BIOPRESS20 transects, by combining the information from the BIOPRESS historic data with the ALARM scenarios using a rule-based, qualitative approach. These projections would then be used to assess the effect of the scenarios on, for instance, habitat quality (COCONUT Deliverable 4.4, p. 2). The 10’ resolution of the ALARM scenarios was downscaled to a 100 m resolution in four transects (2x15 km) with the UK. The work done in WP2, on the development of land use in the past 50 years also made use of the scenario results in their analysis. The COCONUT project also carried out an analysis of the variability in land use projections for 12 European environmental zone (Xxxxxxx et al. 2005), using ALARM scenarios and PELCOM data.
Scenario specifications. The MedAction Scenarios equal the three European Scenarios developed in an Integrated Assessment by the Fourth Framework Program project VISIONS; however emphasizing different aspects evident in the changes made to the FAS:
Scenario specifications. The figure below combines those two uncertainties. The vertical axis ranges from successful international cooperation at the top, to an emphasis on national sovereignty at the bottom; the horizontal axis ranges from a strong role for the public sector at the left, to private responsibility at the right. The combination of the two key uncertainties yields four scenarios for Europe and its countries (De Mooij & Xxxx, 2003).
Scenario specifications. The group developed four main scenarios, the territorial trend scenario served as a baseline for a competitiveness-oriented (Xxxxx-Xxxxx Europe) and a cohesion oriented (Danubian Europe) scenario. It created finally a desirable proactive territorial scenario on the basis of a combination of policies likely to best enable its realisation. On the basis of these scenarios approximately 20 thematic scenarios deal with some of the main driving forces in nine different fields (demography and migration, transport, energy, economy, governance, enlargement, rural development, socio-cultural evolution and integration). Due to the immense extent of this scenario exercise a detailed presentation is not possible in this report. The detailed outcome is published on the ESPON website in several volumes. A digestive version is available as an ESPON publication also on the website. The creation of the scenario knowledge bases, the Macroeconomic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial (MASST) model, the Know trans-European Networks (KTEN) transport model, the exploration of potentials for a European Index of Territorial Cohesion (ETCI), an Indicator of Sustainable Demographic Development (ISDD), a Long-term Database (LTDB), and a methodology for territorial impact assessment (TIA) were scientific contributions to the project. Table 5. Overview of some of the main hypothesis of the three prospective scenarios (ESPON 2006)
