Route Development and. ‘Active Management’ The next phase consisted in validating the top-down forecast approach results with a corresponding bottom-up forecast to apprehend the feasibility of reaching the figures obtained through the consideration of macroeconomic factors and room numbers. The bottom-up forecast takes into account the performance of airlines operating at Bermuda and the current and closed routes KPIs. The bottom- up forecast covers the period 2014-2040 but concentrates on the three years period between 2016 and 2018 in order to give a view of the quick wins targets for Bermuda Airport. Although Bermuda has faced a downturn in passenger traffic and in general the performance of existing services is underperforming in terms of passenger loads and yields, there is opportunity for a recovery. To maximise this opportunity an Active Management strategy would be introduced. This would provide an integrated and directed approach in the following 5 areas: Airline Engagement, Stakeholders, Resources & Skills, Budget & Incentives and Marketing & Communication. Given the existing market position and the Active Management implementation targets, it was identified that by 2040 an additional 820,000 passengers could be generated (thus reaching and surpassing the scenario A forecast). Therefore the Scenario A target is reachable but requires a considerable route development activity. These 820,000 additional passengers would be delivered through 14 new air services to 11 destinations by 2040 (delivering 730,000 additional passengers) and capacity changes on existing routes which will equate to around 90,000 additional passengers. Out of all the new services and capacity increases that could be achieved by 2040, initial targets were identified as key priorities for the next 3 years that could be delivered with “Active Management”. In addition, targeted increases in capacity were identified for specific airlines on existing routes to Canada and the United States. The impact of these increases and a growth in demand through load factors can deliver 168,000 incremental passengers by 2018. This includes a “natural growth” of existing services. In order to deliver the targets identified (2 new air services and 3 increases in capacity) by 2018 and achieve the growth in passenger traffic suggested of 200,000 over a three year period there has to be a significant route development effort, described as Active Management. As mentioned the Active Management strategy would require developm...
