Energy system costs and investment requirements Sample Clauses

Energy system costs and investment requirements. The transition to net zero is a complex process that requires large amounts of investment to be directed to zero-carbon technologies, energy efficiency, sustainable transport and low-carbon R&D. Our analysis shows that investment requirements increase with the stringency of emission reduction targets. Investment in carbon neutrality scenarios are projected around 10% higher compared to the 80% reduction scenarios, which correlates with IPCC estimates, indicating a 12% increase in global investment (average across models) from 2oC pathways. PRIMES results show that climate neutrality scenarios would require annual energy investment of EUR 550 billion in 2031-2050 on average (2.8% of GDP), compared to EUR 360 billion in the reference scenario (1.9% of GDP) – excluding transport vehicles. This compares to recent levels (period 2016-2019) of around 2% of EU GDP invested in the energy system and infrastructure (excluding transport). From a macro-economic perspective such increases in investment are large, considering that EU gross fixed capital formation is currently close to 20% of GDP and an increase in total investment of 1-2 percentage points of GDP would possibly create stress in capital markets (see section 6.2). The current low interest rates and the large, low-cost financial supply combined with the Next Generation EU recovery package can provide the required financial resources for energy system transformation. According to the modelling results extensive additional investment will be needed to reach climate neutrality. Yet, the total amounts and composition of investment is different across scenarios. This confirms the partial substitutability between investment in energy efficiency and additional supply-side investment (e.g., in hydrogen or electricity generation) or between road transport electrification and uptake in synthetic fuels. The findings also illustrate the potential of deep energy efficiency (e.g., via circular economy and lifestyle changes18) to reduce investment requirements and energy system costs. In terms of sectors, most of additional investment is channelled in electricity supply (both in power generation and in transmission and distribution), in the purchase of zero-emission vehicles, the development of clean fuels and in energy renovations in buildings and to a smaller extent in energy management in industries. The additional investment for decarbonisation is also reflected in total system costs and accounted for as equivalent an...
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