Ridership Estimation. Since the 95 Express is already in service for base year 2015, it is considered as the Build scenario. A No-Build scenario is created by removing the 95 Express through the GTFS Editor. The model output is presented in Table 2 below. The Build scenario estimated a total ridership of 1,287, which is fairly close to the actual ridership of 1,168. Comparison between the Build and No-Build scenarios showed that of the 1,287 ridership, 799 are new transit users, about 62%, shifted from non-transit mode, and 488 are attracted from other existing transit services. Table 2 STOPS Model Outputs Program STOPS - FTA Simplified Trips-on-Project Software Version: STOPS-v2.00 - 02/06/2016 Run: Regional STOPS Model System: RSTOPS Study Table 10.01***** AVG WEEKDAY ROUTEUTILIZATION ************ Comparison of Route Boardings by Scenario Total Transit Trips Y2015 Build (existing) Y2015 No Build (95 Express removed) Diff. ===== ====== ====== ====== ===== ====== ====== ====== = Route_ID #NAME? WLK KNR PNR ALL WLK KNR PNR ALL ======= =================== ===== ====== ====== ======= ===== ====== ====== ======= 10 P--31-Wpb X-Town Via 45th 857 58 111 1,026 857 59 111 1,026 0 11 P--33-Lkp -Wpb ViaAustraln/pbl 1,051 76 130 1,257 1,051 76 130 1,257 0 12 P--40-Wpb - Blg Via Sr- 80 [ltd 478 75 98 651 478 75 98 651 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15262 M--150-MIAMI BEACH AIRPORT XXXX 1,419 154 378 1,951 1,421 155 380 1,956 -5 15263 M--183-NW 87 AV/186ST- AVENTUR 3,295 171 131 3,597 3,295 171 131 3,597 0 15264 M--195-I-95 DADE- BROWARD EXPRES 555 164 567 1,287 0 0 0 0 1,287 15265 M--200-XXXXXX BAY LOCAL 40 2 2 44 40 2 2 44 0 15266 M--202-LITTLE HAITI CONNECTION 484 5 7 495 484 5 7 495 0 15267 M--204-XXXXXXX XXX 910 38 51 999 911 39 51 1,001 -2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BCT88 B--88 1,531 69 19 1,619 1,530 69 19 1,618 1 tri-rail T--Tri-Rail-Tri-Rail 6,542 2,678 4,995 14,215 6,629 2,716 5,076 14,420 -205 Total 418,962 30,955 49,577 499,495 418,456 30,903 49,338 498,696 799 5.2. Stop Level Estimate
Ridership Estimation. Similarly, the base year condition of 2015 is considered as the Build scenario. TBEST provides an estimation of 828 direct boardings for 95 Express (Figure 7). This estimate is much lower than the STOPS estimation as well as the actual ridership. This is probably because TBEST is best suited for capturing local transit market, considering the 0.25 mile buffer size for transit access. Given the larger market expected from commuter rails, trains and express services, the buffer size needs to be increased to reflect the attractiveness of express services and the access distance that passengers are willing to take. Accordingly, a buffer distance of 0.6 miles results in a boarding of 1290, which is fairly close to the control total measure from STOPS (Table 4). Figure 7 TBEST model results with a buffer distance of 0.25 miles. Table 4 Comparison of Ridership under Different Buffer Distances Scenario Report Transit Stop Summary Transit System: Xxxxx Scenario: Buffer distance impacts Time Period: Weekday Report Date/Time: 4/21/2018 12:21:59 PM Pattern Stop Total Boardings (Buffer= 0.3 miles) Total Boardings (Buffer=0.4 miles) Total Boardings (Buffer = 0.5 miles) Total Boardings (Buffer = 0.6 miles) 195 Southbound 154485 FORTLAUT 46.93 68.09 93.26 121.55 195 Southbound 154485 FTL21TRS 2.84 4.52 6.26 8.38 195 Southbound 154485 D#8S#2V5 4.31 5.68 7.04 8.14 195 Southbound 154485 D#8S#1V5 0 0 0 0 195 Northbound 154487 SE1S1AVS 28.62 42.16 52.76 62.22 195 Northbound 154487 FTL21TRN 0.3 0.58 0.94 1.35 195 Southbound 154486 FORTLAUT 480 480 480 480 195 Southbound 154486 FTL21TRS 15.38 27.1 38.78 51.75 195 Southbound 154486 D#8S#1V5 16.09 21.18 24.75 27.44 195 Southbound 154486 D1AV##54 9.06 11.82 16.67 20.51 195 Southbound 154486 NW1S1AVS 7.31 9.32 13.27 16.79 195 Southbound 154486 SW1S1AVX 5.66 8.42 11.31 15.65 195 Southbound 154486 SE1S1AVS 0 0 0 0 195 Northbound 154488 D#8S#1V5 98.34 123.95 143.06 160.17 195 Northbound 154488 D1AV##54 66.26 82.79 109.12 128.33 195 Northbound 154488 NW1S1AVS 55.81 68.26 86.67 100.68 195 Northbound 154488 SW1S1AVX 44.71 57.76 69.52 72.09 195 Northbound 154488 SE1S1AVS 14.34 18.94 22.63 15.9 195 Northbound 154488 FTL21TRN 0.34 0.61 0.94 1.31 Total Stops 896.3 1031.2 1177 1292.3 TBEST also provides a full market analysis for the study area. This procedure allows the user to analyze the share of different land use types in generating transit trips or to conduct a full analysis of socioeconomic and demographic attributes of the market. Figu...
