The Scenario Narratives. A brief overview of the four scenario narratives is provided below. Each narrative provides a possible pathway for the decarbonisation of Europe’s energy system, each highlighting different possible dynamics and challenges. ‐ New players and systems: This is a storyline focused on the potential for emerging technologies—and new players associated with them—to play an increasingly dominant role in energy systems. The scenario envisages continued cost reductions for variable renewables, coupled with electric vehicles and widespread electrification in heat and industry facilitate decarbonisation. ‐ Incumbents’ renewal: This scenario explores push‐back from incumbent industries and technologies, and higher levels of consumer resistance to change. Decarbonisation pathways in this scenario rely on renewables but also carbon capture and storage, greening gas for heating and industry using bioenergy and hydrogen, and an expansion of nuclear power in some countries. ‐ Efficiency & sufficiency: New technologies enable new business models (such as car‐sharing), with data‐driven efficiency gains in buildings and industry, and reduced flow of materials through circular economy trends. A feature of the scenario is an emphasis on equality, co‐benefits and health: a greater emphasis on decent housing, a concern for urban air quality, and an increasing shift to low‐meat diets all facilitate decarbonisation. ‐ Conflict and divergence – a Europe of two speeds?: This scenario engages with the possibility for divergence within and between member states over climate change policy ambition: some countries and regions – perhaps fuelled by populism – may face greater resistance to radical change where jobs and regional economies are at risk. Others may press ahead, seeking more ambitious action and seeing climate policy as a route to economic renewable through a green industrial transformation. In such a scenario, we may see a patchwork of technology options, and fragmented policy action – with a split between some countries willing to lead, and others achieving decarbonisation more slowly.
