Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Sample Clauses

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. ‌ The pioneering work in modern intelligence analysis for deception detection was done by Xxxxxxxx Xxxxx to address issues such as the complexity of counterfactual reasoning about event causation and event causation prevention. Xxxxx wanted to help intelligence analysts reduce their cognitive biases and cognitive load in analysing complex cases. Therefore, he proposed a methodology to help analysts reason about evidence about possible events in a scientific manner. Xxxxx had been strongly influenced by Xxxx Xxxxxx’x Falsi ability Theory [209] and therefore believed that a rigorous falsification of hypotheses would result in sound conclusions about the truth of events. In [122] and, more recently, in [123], Xxxxx describes the “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH). ACH is a seven step methodology developed for the CIA to limit or neutralise the cognitive biases [124] and enhance the cognitive capabilities of intelligence analysts. Xxxxx believes that the elimination of cognitive bias is achieved through the consideration of a complex thread of alternative competing hypotheses. If all alternative hypotheses are considered, instead of focusing on a single most- likely hypothesis, then the analyst achieves a more objective and systematic view of the problem. However, doing so implies engaging in an extremely difficult cognitive task on behalf of the analyst. That is why Xxxxx proposes ACH as a seven step methodology. This seven-step analysis is performed on a matrix of hypotheses and Table 2.1: Matrix for ACH, where “+” and “-” mean that an item of evidence E either prove or, respectively, disprove a hypothesis H. H1 H2 H3 ... Hn E1 + - - ... + E2 + + - ... - E3 - + + ... - ... ... ... ... ... ... En - + + ... + evidence, where hypotheses are enumerated in the columns of the matrix, and the evidence on the rows of the matrix (See Table 2.1). The seven steps are: