Fundimentals Models Sample Clauses

Fundimentals Models. Fundamentals models are most often created by political scientists. These models are statistical approaches built around a theoretically and histori- cally based presupposition of how the electorate behaves [42, 4, 23]. The best of such models are able to predict the results of the election months beforehand [8, 43, 25, 21, 20]. Each model relies on a unique combina- tion of factors to predict the two-party popular vote. The most common historical-fundamentals used in predicting elections are: economic and ide- ological indicators, presidential approval ratings, and the predisposition of the electorate to a candidate. To better understand the composition and utility of historial-fundamentals models, consider the following three scholars’ approaches which are summarized by figure 2.2. As is evident in figure 2.2, the accuracy of fundamentals models varies each year. This reflects the nature and intent of the models variables. The first of these models is the Time-for-Change model (TFC) by Xxxx Xxxxxxxxxx [4, 5, 2, 6, 7, 3]. Like most other fundamentals models, TFC, first published to predict the 1988 election cycle, forecast the incumbents party’s share of the two-party popular vote [4]. It uses three fundamentals to do so: the incumbent president’s net approval rating (the percent of Americans who approve of his performance minus the percent who disapprove), the growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of the election year, and if the current president is running for his second term or not [4]. Xxxxxxxxxx’x model has correctly predicted every election it has been used to forecast up to and inclusive of the 2012 race with an average error of 1.7 percentage points.
Sample 1
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