Research Design. Theories of foreign policy should be tested by empirical analysis. But why do case studies? According to ▇▇▇ (2003, 58), not only would ‘the demands of a case study burden [one’s] intellect, ego, and emotion far greater than those of any other research strategy’ due to non-routinized data collection procedure whereby there is a ‘continuous interaction between the theoretical issues being studied and the data being collected,’ but a case study would be the best research strategy to ask ‘how’ and ‘why’ questions over a set of contemporary events whereby the researcher has very little or no control (▇▇▇ 2003, 9). The cases chosen should cut across several themes. The themes must encompass issues that are politicized, or belong to the political system (Falkemark 1982, 46). Or, as ▇▇▇▇ puts it, an issue must be the object of conflicting preferences and of material importance (Falkemark 1982, 35). Employing such parameters, obvious cases would include nationally prominent issues involving the interests of many elements of society. These issues may include banal but strategically important issues for the country, or issues that could be regarded as a crisis. Recalling ▇▇▇▇’▇ strict test for determining the presence of a ruling elite, implementation thereof requires that a series of concrete cases where key decisions are made be examined (▇▇▇▇ 1958, 469). Hence, the dynamics of decisions must be analyzed. This step involves paying attention to the saliency of the elites, for saliency is extremely important in shaping organized and structured opinion, and subsequently, the elite perceptions of this opinion. While contents of attitudes and opinions tend to remain stable over time, saliency fluctuates considerably, influencing in turn the ‘perception of the content of opinion’ (Everts 2002, 48). Data for these selected cases shall be primarily obtained by personal interviews with members of the political elite groups (bureaucratic, members of parliament, military, and civil society comprising academic, religious, and interest groups, and media), specifically those who were involved with policy discussions or deliberations. The names of those interviewed are included in the Bibliography of this study. The purpose of the interviews was to obtain insight into the mind of the particular elites (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 2001, 94), individually or collectively, so that their attitudes and opinions are identified, and, ultimately, their policy preferences on the politicized foreign policy issues under contention can be mapped. This data is complemented by analysis of articles in major print newspapers and magazines available during the period of study though not necessarily written during that period. To provide a systematic picture of the dynamics of elites in foreign policy making, this study follows the research design described above. Politicized issues are chosen. The positions of the various elites on those issues are mapped. General foreign policy principles and statements are identified. Though its predictive power is inconclusive, for the purposes of constituting a control variable during both the formulation and the implementation phases of foreign policy, ideology is assumed to have been operative, though during the latter phase other factors are to be accounted for as well. To put such units of analysis within the chosen theoretical framework we shall employ the following setup. Two independent variables are involved. The first independent variable is the political elites’ embrace (or non-embrace) of nationalist ideology of ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇, as manifested through the presence of domestic calls for Indonesia to pursue either an assertive or an accommodative foreign policy. The second independent variable is the political elites’ views of both the world and of the various political actors in it, which can then be clustered into perceptions of the world and its actors that are either benign, or of a world and its actors that are hostile, to the national interest of Indonesia. The dependent variable is the foreign policy outcome at both the formulation and implementation stages as manifested in the propensity to pursue policies that are either assertive or accommodative. In comparing foreign policies during Guided Democracy and Reformasi, two commonalities were observed in both time periods. Firstly, the domestic political environments were competitive for the political elites. Secondly, foreign policy functioned as a tool that the political elites used to compete for political power. As shall later be elaborated, during Guided Democracy foreign policy was used by the elites as a means to increase their powers vis-à-vis each other in getting closer to the President while in Reformasi foreign policy was used to consolidate political power. However, in the latter case the political maneuverings must be conducted within the national framework of prioritizing Indonesia’s economic recovery from the financial crisis of 1997 whereas during Guided Democracy domestic political efforts were undertaken within the framework of a foreign policy that was to, among other goals, assist in building, if not to outright create, a new world order providing opportunities whereby nations such as Indonesia would not have to be forced to lose their identities by aligning with either the United States or the Soviet Union. Although the study builds upon case studies from one country only, an attempt is made to contribute to more general theory formation and to enable the application of the findings of this study to other countries.
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