Common use of Scenario Development and Options Analysis Clause in Contracts

Scenario Development and Options Analysis. This task will provide the Energy Commission with a scenario development capability to explore a wide range of possible futures, and the resulting market impact outcomes from a range of program options, such as sensitivities around different portfolio funding distributions, strategic investment decisions, and specific market support mechanisms. The resulting analysis by the Energy Commission will assist in the development of more robust program strategies, accounting for market and technology variability and uncertainties, contributing to long-term strategic planning activities and adaptive management responses to external factors to improve the likelihood of meeting program goals. The Contractor shall: • Leverage the NREL market assessment models used in Task 5.1 to explore and evaluate the long-term Market Transformation Benefits and a range of theoretical future ARFVTP funding strategies, portfolio distributions, and market support mechanisms. Multiple transportation analysis sub-models will be relied upon using the same Integrated Market Impact Assessment (IMIA), developed in contract 000-00-000, modeling environment used in Task 5.1. • Tailor modeling to long-term and California-specific market and policy conditions, allowing for more extensive integrated assessments across technology types (biofuels, electric-drive, fuel cell vehicles, and conventional fossil fuel and hybrid vehicle drivetrains), and energy sectors (electric grid and transportation vehicle-fuel sectors). Incorporate in the IMIA framework a broad range of data sources, optimized across a wide range of specified metrics and future scenario trends, including total program benefits given priorities or weightings on different assessment criteria (to be provided by the CAM). . • Submit wrapped spreadsheets to the CAM for review and comments. • Review updates to ARFVTP project data base and benefit estimates (Task 5.1), California transportation market and technology trend performance updates (Task 2.0), and any relevant forecasting mechanisms from the Energy Commission. These will serve as inputs to the IMIA framework, ensuring that ongoing scenario and options analyses are based upon the most recently available technology trends and market data. Tailor the IMIA model in Task 5.2 to California market conditions and policy environment. The model will address the particular questions related to the ARFVTP (listed below). This information will extend to 2035, and to 2050 where practical, and shall include the following types of information and market influences: • Evaluation of substitution preferences by vehicle attribute • Evaluation and projection of alternative fuel costs • Evaluation of influence of various policies on market dynamics, including: o Influence of the XXX mandate on vehicle markets o Influence of the LCFS on fuel prices o Influence of the CVRP on consumer choices o Influence of RPS on grid carbon intensity o Influence of long-term feedstock procurement and offtake contracts on business models for biorefineries • Answer the key research question, “Given specified Program Goals, Options, and Constraints, which Option Portfolios achieve the best Metric Outcomes across a set of Possible Futures?”

Scenario Development and Options Analysis. This task will provide the Energy Commission with a scenario development capability to explore a wide range of possible futures, and the resulting market impact outcomes from a range of program options, such as sensitivities around different portfolio funding distributions, strategic investment decisions, and specific market support mechanisms. The resulting analysis by the Energy Commission will assist in the development of more robust program strategies, accounting for market and technology variability and uncertainties, contributing to long-term strategic planning activities and adaptive management responses to external factors to improve the likelihood of meeting program goals. The Contractor shall: • Leverage the NREL market assessment models used in Task 5.1 to explore and evaluate the long-term Market Transformation Benefits and a range of theoretical future ARFVTP funding strategies, portfolio distributions, and market support mechanisms. Multiple transportation analysis sub-models will be relied upon using the same Integrated Market Impact Assessment (IMIA), developed in contract 000-00-000, modeling environment used in Task 5.1. • Tailor modeling to long-term and California-specific market and policy conditions, allowing for more extensive integrated assessments across technology types (biofuels, electric-drive, fuel cell vehicles, and conventional fossil fuel and hybrid vehicle drivetrains), and energy sectors (electric grid and transportation vehicle-fuel sectors). Incorporate in the IMIA framework a broad range of data sources, optimized across a wide range of specified metrics and future scenario trends, including total program benefits given priorities or weightings on different assessment criteria (to be provided by the CAM). . • Submit wrapped spreadsheets to the CAM for review and comments. • Review updates to ARFVTP project data base and benefit estimates (Task 5.1), California transportation market and technology trend performance updates (Task 2.0), and any relevant forecasting mechanisms from the Energy Commission’s Emerging Fuels and Technologies Office. These will serve as inputs to the IMIA framework, ensuring that ongoing scenario and options analyses are based upon the most recently available technology trends and market data. Tailor the IMIA model in Task 5.2 to California market conditions and policy environment. The model will address the particular questions related to the ARFVTP (listed below). This information will extend to 2035, and to 2050 where practical, and shall include the following types of information and market influences: • Evaluation of substitution preferences by vehicle attribute • Evaluation and projection of alternative fuel costs • Evaluation of influence of various policies on market dynamics, including: o Influence of the XXX mandate on vehicle markets o Influence of the LCFS on fuel prices o Influence of the CVRP on consumer choices o Influence of RPS on grid carbon intensity o Influence of long-term feedstock procurement and offtake contracts on business models for biorefineries • Answer the key research question, “Given specified Program Goals, Options, and Constraints, which Option Portfolios achieve the best Metric Outcomes across a set of Possible Futures?”