How to Forecast During the Recession Sample Clauses

How to Forecast During the Recession. This section will give an overview how to make forecasting during a recession. In 2007 the news about steel production was very optimistic. The headlines of all articles related to steel industry began with the following words: “World crude steel production jumped to record in 2006, World crude steel production increased by 5.3%”. World Steel Association stated that 2008 will be another strong year for the steel industry. However, the financial crisis has occurred in 2009. It has strongly affected the steel industry: steel demand has dramatically decreased and prices for steel have fallen down. In the current situation steel industry experience that supply overtakes demand. It leads to collapse phase and results in cutting the production of steel and waiting what happened in the future. In this stage to make forecast is a challenge. Nowadays forecasts in big companies are carried out by expensive forecasting software. Xxxx (2009) expresses that the managers of big companies have a challenge how to make the forecast in these days. The results of forecasting systems gives the forecasting which is away by 40% from the truth. Forecasting software is not able to identify patterns during recession. Of course human beings can identify different patterns and trends in historical data but it is difficult to handle all data gathered in database. He suggests implementing simple algorithms such as weighted moving average, exponential smoothing.
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