Common use of Results and Discussion Clause in Contracts

Results and Discussion. The net emissions (carbon stock changes in the live biomass, debris and HWP pools) in the reference and ENGO scenarios are shown in Figure 4. The net emissions under the reference, ENGO (no leakage) and ENGO (15% leakage) scenarios, and the FM credits generated under the ENGO (no leakage) and ENGO (15% leakage) scenarios, are shown in Table 3. Figure 4 Carbon stock change (live biomass, debris, harvested wood product pools) in reference and ENGO scenarios, Mt CO2-e yr-1, 2013-2030 Table 3 Net emissions and FM credit outcomes under the reference, ENGO (no leakage) and ENGO (15% leakage) scenarios, Mt CO2-e yr-1, 2013-2030 The results suggest the FM credits associated with the creation of the reserves are likely to be significant. Under the ENGO (no leakage) scenario, the mean over the period 2013-2020 is 8.01 Mt CO2-e yr-1, rising to 8.48 Mt CO2-e yr-1 for the period 2021-2030. Under the ENGO (15% leakage) scenario, the impacts of the leakage to other FM areas reduces these averages to 6.81 Mt CO2-e yr-1 and 7.21 Mt CO2-e yr-1 for 2013-2020 and 2021-2030 respectively. To put these annual FM credit numbers in perspective, they are more than the total annual emissions from a 1400-1500 MW capacity black coal-fired power station. For example, in 2009-10, the 1434 MW capacity Stanwell Power Station in Queensland generated 8063 GWh of electricity and emitted approximately 6.2 MtCO2-e of greenhouse gases (Stanwell Corporation Ltd, 2011).24 Similarly, in the same year, the 1400 MW capacity Tarong Power Station, also in Queensland, generated 7124 GWh 24 The emission estimate was devised using the Queensland black coal energy content factor from ABARES (2011c) and the black coal emission factors from DCCEE (2011). of electricity and emitted roughly 6 MtCO2-e (Tarong Energy Corporation Ltd, 2010).25 Another way of illustrating the magnitude of the potential FM credits associated with the ENGO reserves is to compare them to Australia’s abatement task (the amount by which emissions have to be reduced compared to a ‘no policy change’ reference case to meet Australia’s mitigation commitments). In the Strong Growth, Low Pollution report, the Australian Treasury estimated that Australia’s cumulative abatement task with a 5% emission reduction target for 2020 over the period 2013-2020 was 737 Mt CO2-e (Australian Treasury, 2011).26 The results here suggest that the FM credits under the ENGO scenario would equate to between 7.4% and 8.7% of this task (Table 4). For the period 2021-2030, the Treasury estimate of the abatement task increases to 2916 Mt CO2-e as Australia heads towards an 80% emission reduction target for 2050. The credits under the ENGO scenario over this period would constitute 2.5-2.9% of this task. Period Cumulative abatement task (Mt CO2-e) Cumulative FM credits (Mt CO2-e) Proportion of abatement task 2013-2020 737.3 64.07 54.46 8.7% 7.4% 2021-2030 2916.3 84.79 72.07 2.9% 2.5% 2013-2030 3653.6 148.86 126.54 4.1% 3.5% Source: Australian Treasury (2011) and author estimates.