Bridging narratives and scenario modelling Sample Clauses

Bridging narratives and scenario modelling. The INNOPATHS scenarios process has aimed to link qualitative narratives about the future of Europe’s energy system with quantitative systems modelling. Energy system and integrated assessment models provide a depiction of the techno-economic dynamics and possibilities that shape decarbonisation pathways. They often capture some elements of more “socio-technical” dimensions of pathways (such as learning-by- doing), but are typically unable to capture more broadly social, cultural or political trends unless there is a strong basis for converting expectations about such trends into techno-economic or socio-technical variables in the model. An explicit element of the workshop session was to invite the INNOPATHS modellers to discuss the extent to which the future enablers and barriers of deep decarbonisation identified by participants could—or could not—be represented in the scenario modelling of the pathways. The aim here was to help identify issues that stakeholders believe may be important but which lie outside the modelling, and to identify issues that could be included in future modelling either within the project or in subsequent work. In order to do this, modellers were asked to categorise the identified enabling or constraining factors following a ‘traffic light’ system as follows: - Green: factor is captured explicitly by the processes represented in the model - Yellow: factor can be captured as an exogenous scenario variable, or by adjusting the model such that the effects of the factor are mimicked by the model - Red: Factor cannot reasonably be captured by the modelling, and there is no clear basis for using the factor to inform parameter choices in scenarios Clearly the models represented within the project differ in their underpinning formulations, their technological detail, and their coverage of macro-economic processes and feedbacks. The aim was a structured dialogue about the way that models can (or cannot) represent some important possible future dynamics; rather than an exhaustive elucidation of how each model works.
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