Permanent Population Clause Samples

Permanent Population. The INSEE, has gathered information in several censuses at the national scale. The population surveys of five municipalities surrounding Barcelonnette are available for six different dates (Table 2). Table 2 Population of the towns of the studied site from 1968 to 2006 (INSEE, December 2008) ▇▇▇▇ ▇▇▇▇ ▇▇▇▇ 1990 1999 2006 Barcelonnette 2476 2626 2735 2976 2815 2818 Enchastrayes 322 365 437 474 507 439 Faucon-de-Barcelonnette 153 128 113 199 209 296 Jausiers 628 681 747 860 891 1013 Saint-Pons 178 350 401 507 641 675 Total (5 municipalities) 3757 4150 4433 5016 5063 5241 However, as these municipalities are quite small and the figures are affected by singular events. For example the construction of a private housing estate or the closure of an important factory may significantly change the demographic pattern of the area. Consequently it is impossible to estimate accurately how population will evolve in the relatively near future (2030) at this scale. This is confirmed by INSEE surveys, which only provides prospects at French “département” scale and not at larger scale. The INSEE forecasts for the Alpes de Haute Provence département (which is the département of the five municipalities considered) are summarized in the Table 3. Table 3 Population prediction for the period 2010‐2030 for the département Alpes de Haute Provence 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Alpes de Haute Provence 160 837 168 264 175 964 183 818 191 410 These prospective figures of the département population can be used to roughly estimate the population of the five municipalities in 2030. Assuming that the municipalities’ population will represent the same fraction of the département population in 2006 and in 2030, the following prospective figures have been obtained (Table 4): Table 4 Forecasts for 2030 for the population and the density of the towns of the studied site computed from INSEE forecasts for the département Alpes de Haute Provence Population Density Alpes de Haute Provence 154501 191 410 22.3 28 Barcelonnette 2818 3491 171.63 213 Enchastrayes 439 544 9.93 12 Faucon-de-B. 296 367 17 21 Jausiers 1013 1255 9.41 12 Saint-Pons 675 836 21.05 26 The past evolution of the population in the municipalities and in the département demonstrates that this method is by no means perfect. In fact, if we apply the method to the 1990 figures assuming that the municipalities’ population represents the same fraction of the département population in 1990 and in 2006, we obtain forecasts for 2006 population w...