Delphi Methodology Sample Clauses

Delphi Methodology. Since its development by the Rand Corporation to improve (military) technology forecasting in the 1960s, Delphi studies have been applied widely. The approach involves successive questionnaires to an expert panel, using feedback to refine an informed perspective on complex or uncertain issues. Epistemologically, Delphi studies are not merely deductive but also disclosive (▇▇▇▇▇, 1989), and allow fragmentary perspectives to coalesce into a larger collective understanding. The best definition of the approach is found in the seminal work of Linstone and ▇▇▇▇▇▇ (1975, p. 3): Delphi may be characterised as a method for structuring a group communication process in such a way that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. Recent use of this method has been widespread, especially in health and education topics (for examples, see ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al. (2004); ▇▇▇▇▇▇ (2003); ▇▇▇▇▇ et al. (2001); and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ and ▇▇▇▇▇▇ (2000)). A topical review of this methodology and critiques on Delphi studies are provided by ▇▇▇▇▇▇ (2000). A small number of studies have been carried out to forecast food market development, but as ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ and Gladstone (1998) note, its use in applied social science is not widespread, perhaps because it is less well known among researchers than other techniques. While many Delphi studies are focused on purely forecasting issues, a “policy Delphi” variant (▇▇▇▇▇▇, 1975) aims to provide a forum for idea generation, commentary and evaluation; facets of both forecasting and idea-generation were used in this study of ▇▇▇▇▇▇ (1975). The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for decision making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (▇▇▇▇▇ and ▇▇▇▇▇▇, 1996). ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ (1975) asserts that lacking full scientific knowledge, decision-makers have to rely on their own intuition or on expert opinion. The Delphi method has been widely used to generate forecasts in technology, education, and other fields (Cornish, 1977). The Delphi method is an exercise in group communication among a panel of geographically dispersed experts (▇▇▇▇▇ and Ziglio, 1996). The technique allows experts to deal systematically with a complex problem or task. The essence of the techn...