Common use of Context and Background Clause in Contracts

Context and Background. Although globally there is enough water to satisfy the demand of almost every person on the planet (Savenije, 2000), the spatial and temporal distribution of this freshwater (Oki and Kanae, 2006) and of the global population means that in reality there are areas of the planet that suffer from serious water shortages. Generally, developing nations are more severely affected by these shortages, being located in (semi-)arid locations. However, the recent 2012 drought in the United Kingdom illustrates that even more developed nations can still suffer water shortages, with potential impacts on livelihoods and the economy. It has been shown that globally during the period 1960-2000, more people - from 27% to 43% of the global population from 1960 to 2000 - have been pushed into more water-stressed situations, mainly due to increasing water demand predominantly from the agricultural sector (Wada et al., 2011) which accounts for c. 85% of the total global consumptive water withdrawal (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2008). On top of this backdrop, are the potential impacts of climate, population and social change in the coming decades. Current model projections of global climate change indicate a general warming trend by the 2050s, particularly over the Mediterranean and North Africa region (▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2004; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇, 2007; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007). In addition, rainfall totals in this region are expected to become either lower or more sporadic (▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2004; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007), with a concomitant increase in drought frequency (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007). It is recognised however that there is considerable scatter in model results, varying not only by model type but also by the simulation resolution (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇, 2007). Despite this, the general warming and drying trend over the Mediterranean Basin is still generally observed. With respect to global population, general estimate to 2050 are that the population will increase from seven billion at present to between c. 8 - 10.6 billion (United Nations, 2010), with a large increase also expected around the Mediterranean. An additional consideration is that as societies develop and wealth increases, household (domestic) water consumption is generally expected to rise (Alcamo et al., 2007; ▇▇▇▇▇▇ and Matovelle, 2010) as is agricultural water use as a result of increasing demand for more water intensive products and the effects of increased evapotranspiration demand from crops (Alcamo et al., 2007). Due to increased temperatures, tourism, which is key to some of the case studies being examined here (e.g. Syros and Sardinia) may decrease as temperatures becomes uncomfortable (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009). There are some potential benefits. For example, it is predicted that the growing season through the Mediterranean will lengthen, and may result in increased yield (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009), mainly in the winter months. The general trend from the above discussion is that as global freshwater supply drops, global demand increases. Globally, there is much variation however. For example, from analysis of 12 global climate models, (Milly et al., 2005) show that while areas such are North America and Eurasia show up to 40% increase in streamflow volume, southern Europe and the Middle East are expected to experience up to a 30% decrease in streamflows, with significant impacts for the local economy and ecosystems. (Alcamo et al., 2007) using the WaterGAP model to simulate the physical and socio-economic impacts of future global change predict either a decrease of water stress by up to 29% or an increase of up to 75% depending on the scenario and the basin. (Alcamo et al., 2007) show that where water stress decreases, this is mainly due to increasing precipitation, while the main cause of increasing stress is growing water withdrawals as a result of income increases and not population increases (which was not as important as improving lifestyles from income increases). In fact, some authors have reported that in the near future, it will be population growth and economic development, not climate change, that will be the main driver that increase water stress generally (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). Likewise, (▇▇▇▇ et al., 2008) estimate that global water withdrawals (i.e. human-driven impacts) may increase from 3800 to over 6000 km3 yr-1, however the amount of increase depends on the socio-economic development scenario that is modelled (taken from the IPCC SRES scenarios). (▇▇▇▇▇ and Alcamo, 2011) show that river basins in southern Europe are the most vulnerable to climate change, and will become far more water stressed than at present. The Mediterranean region has also been described as a global change 'hotspot' and may suffer some of the worst impacts resulting from this change. The impacts of increasing water stress are potentially severe. (Alcamo et al., 2007) estimate that global industrial water demand will increase in response to increasing electricity generation as development improves lifestyles in developing countries. However, if the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic growth are such that overall supply decreases, then the industrial sector may not be able to meet the increase in electricity demand, hampering growth and development. Also, as agricultural demand increases due to population growth and climate change (increasing temperatures are likely to increase the evaporative demand from plants, increasing water requirements, (Alcamo et al., 2007)), there is the potential for widespread food shortages unless more efficient irrigation technologies are widely adopted. It is clearly important that a better understanding of global and local water availability, and the potential impacts to local development, is required. This element of the WASSERMed Project, Integrated Modelling of Water Related Security Threats, aims to better quantify the local water balance in five case study areas, together with addressing the wider socio-economic implications of changes to the water balance. Through the Mediterranean, just some of the likely consequences of global change are: lower or more sporadic rainfall totals; increased population; improving lifestyles; increased crop evapotranspiration; lower streamflows; and reduced recharge to aquifers. This work has the potential to better inform local policy makers, and make them aware of the options available to them and of the potential impact of these options. Thus, those options or policy measures can be identified which are most likely to have overall long-term beneficial impacts, and to avoid those that are likely to be detrimental. .

Context and Background. Although globally there is enough water to satisfy the demand of almost every person on the planet (Savenije, 2000), the spatial and temporal distribution of this freshwater (Oki and Kanae, 2006) and of the global population means that in reality there are areas of the planet that suffer from serious water shortages. Generally, developing nations are more severely affected by these shortages, being located in (semi-)arid locations. However, the recent 2012 drought in the United Kingdom illustrates that even more developed nations can still suffer water shortages, with potential impacts on livelihoods and the economy. It has been shown that globally during the period 1960-2000, more people - from 27% to 43% of the global population from 1960 to 2000 - have been pushed into more water-stressed situations, mainly due to increasing water demand predominantly from the agricultural sector (Wada et al., 2011) which accounts for c. 85% of the total global consumptive water withdrawal (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2008). On top of this backdrop, are the potential impacts of climate, population and social change in the coming decades. Current model projections of global climate change indicate a general warming trend by the 2050s, particularly over the Mediterranean and North Africa region (▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2004; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇, 2007; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007). In addition, rainfall totals in this region are expected to become either lower or more sporadic (▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2004; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007), with a concomitant increase in drought frequency (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009; ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007). It is recognised however that there is considerable scatter in model results, varying not only by model type but also by the simulation resolution (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇, 2007). Despite this, the general warming and drying trend over the Mediterranean Basin is still generally observed. With respect to global population, general estimate to 2050 are that the population will increase from seven billion at present to between c. 8 - 10.6 billion (United Nations, 2010), with a large increase also expected around the Mediterranean. An additional consideration is that as societies develop and wealth increases, household (domestic) water consumption is generally expected to rise (Alcamo et al., 2007; ▇▇▇▇▇▇ and Matovelle, 2010) as is agricultural water use as a result of increasing demand for more water intensive products and the effects of increased evapotranspiration demand from crops (Alcamo et al., 2007). Due to increased temperatures, tourism, which is key to some of the case studies being examined here (e.g. Syros and Sardinia) may decrease as temperatures becomes uncomfortable (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009). There are some potential benefits. For example, it is predicted that the growing season through the Mediterranean will lengthen, and may result in increased yield (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2009), mainly in the winter months. The general trend from the above discussion is that as global freshwater supply drops, global demand increases. Globally, there is much variation however. For example, from analysis of 12 global climate models, (Milly et al., 2005) show that while areas such are North America and Eurasia show up to 40% increase in streamflow volume, southern Europe and the Middle East are expected to experience up to a 30% decrease in streamflows, with significant impacts for the local economy and ecosystems. (Alcamo ▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007) using the WaterGAP model to simulate the physical and socio-economic impacts of future global change predict either a decrease of water stress by up to 29% or an increase of up to 75% depending on the scenario and the basin. (Alcamo ▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007) show that where water stress decreases, this is mainly due to increasing precipitation, while the main cause of increasing stress is growing water withdrawals as a result of income increases and not population increases (which was not as important as improving lifestyles from income increases). In fact, some authors have reported that in the near future, it will be population growth and economic development, not climate change, that will be the main driver that increase water stress generally (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). Likewise, (▇▇▇▇ et al., 2008) estimate that global water withdrawals (i.e. human-driven impacts) may increase from 3800 to over 6000 km3 yr-1, however the amount of increase depends on the socio-economic development scenario that is modelled (taken from the IPCC SRES scenarios). (▇▇▇▇▇ and Alcamo▇▇▇▇▇▇, 2011) show that river basins in southern Europe are the most vulnerable to climate change, and will become far more water stressed than at present. The Mediterranean region has also been described as a global change 'hotspot' and may suffer some of the worst impacts resulting from this change. The impacts of increasing water stress are potentially severe. (Alcamo ▇▇▇▇▇▇ et al., 2007) estimate that global industrial water demand will increase in response to increasing electricity generation as development improves lifestyles in developing countries. However, if the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic growth are such that overall supply decreases, then the industrial sector may not be able to meet the increase in electricity demand, hampering growth and development. Also, as agricultural demand increases due to population growth and climate change (increasing temperatures are likely to increase the evaporative demand from plants, increasing water requirements, (Alcamo et al., 2007)), there is the potential for widespread food shortages unless more efficient irrigation technologies are widely adopted. It is clearly important that a better understanding of global and local water availability, and the potential impacts to local development, is required. This element of the WASSERMed Project, Integrated Modelling of Water Related Security Threats, aims to better quantify the local water balance in five case study areas, together with addressing the wider socio-economic implications of changes to the water balance. Through the Mediterranean, just some of the likely consequences of global change are: lower or more sporadic rainfall totals; increased population; improving lifestyles; increased crop evapotranspiration; lower streamflows; and reduced recharge to aquifers. This work has the potential to better inform local policy makers, and make them aware of the options available to them and of the potential impact of these options. Thus, those options or policy measures can be identified which are most likely to have overall long-term beneficial impacts, and to avoid those that are likely to be detrimental. .