Optimism Bias Clause Samples

Optimism Bias. The Project Team followed HM Treasury Green Book guidance and the Risk Management Guide in the Scottish Capital Investment Manual to determine the level of Optimism Bias that should be applied to the Proposed Solution, based on each of the proposed solutions requiring a new build hospital. The upper bound percentage was calculated be determining the build complexity, location, scope of the scheme and changes to service delivery. The team then worked through an assessment of the mitigation already carried out based on experience of previous projects to determine the mitigation factor to be applied to the upper bound percentage. The resulting Optimism Bias rate is summarised in the table below. Upper Bound % 39.5% Mitigation Factor 90.4% As the project progresses and detailed designs are developed, the level of optimism bias applied to the preferred solution will be reviewed and considered against the level of quantified risk that can be established. The expectation is that the more risks that can be quantified, the level of optimism bias will reduce. Future reviews of optimism bias will also take account of any inflationary increases beyond those already included.