The AMV and IPV SST patterns used in PRIMAVERA experiments Sample Clauses

The AMV and IPV SST patterns used in PRIMAVERA experiments. We now describe the methodology used to produce the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern from observations that are representative of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Interdecadal Pacific Variability (hereafter AMV and IPV, respectively). The AMV and IPV SST anomalies that are imposed in the proposed experiments correspond to an estimation of the internal component of observed decadal variability. To get these SST anomalies, the externally forced signal, both natural (solar+volcanoes) and anthropogenic (GHG and aerosols), must be a priori removed. There are multiple ways of estimating the externally forced signal. Here we follow the approach proposed by Xxxx et al (2009) that uses a signal-to‐noise maximizing EOF analysis (Xxxxxxx et al. 1999) applied to global annual mean SST derived from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Historical simulations and Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations are used for the 1870‐2005 and the 2006-2013 periods, respectively (Xxxxxx et al. 2016a). The time series associated to the AMV and IPV patterns are then defined as residuals of the forced components over the 1870‐2013 period. The AMV and IPV SST patterns are then obtained by regression using the sub period of 1900-2013 during which observations are more reliable (Fig. 1). Figure1: AMV SST anomalies obtained from regression of ERSST4 annual residual SSTs (i.e. the forced component removed) on the AMV time series. Units are K/sigma where sigma is the standard deviation of the AMV time series (sigma varies between -2 and 2 throughout the 20th
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