Population Projections. Contrary to previous trends, the latest available estimates indicate that the population of East Ayrshire is likely to remain relatively static between 2010 and 2035. By contrast, the population of Scotland is projected to increase by 10.2% between 2010 and 2035. East Ayrshire’s population is ageing significantly, with the local working age population (16-64) projected to fall by 13.8% between 2010 and 2035, compared with a relatively static working age population across Scotland. These statistics are compounded by the fact that the over 65 population is expected to increase significantly over the same timeframe. It is estimated that the number of residents aged 65 and over in East Ayrshire will increase by 59%, and will account for around 28% of the total population by 2035, compared to 18% in 2010. Over the 25 year period, the age group that is projected to increase the most in size in East Ayrshire is the 75+ age group. This is the same as Scotland as a whole. The population aged under 16 years in East Ayrshire is projected to decline by 4.3% between 2010 to 2035. Source: National Records of Scotland: East Ayrshire Council Demographic Area – Demographic Factsheet, December 2012 East Ayrshire Area Profile Age Structure Mid year estimates 2011. Age Male Female All East Ayrshire Scotland 5-9 3,251 3,126 6,377 5.3% 5.2% 10-14 4,082 3,814 7,896 6.6% 6.5% 15-19 3,169 2,965 6,134 5.1% 4.9% 20-24 4,037 3,756 7,793 6.5% 7.0% 25-29 3,449 3,420 6,869 5.7% 6.8% 30-34 2,873 3,226 6,099 5.1% 6.1% 35-39 3,559 3,695 7,254 6.0% 6.1% 40-44 4,424 4,895 9,319 7.8% 7.3% 45-49 4,563 4,974 9,537 7.9% 7.7% 50-54 4,168 4,567 8,735 7.3% 7.1% 55-59 3,700 3,928 7,628 6.3% 6.2% 60-64 4,142 4,252 8,394 7.0% 6.3% 65-69 3,098 3,412 6,510 5.4% 5.0% 70-74 2,498 2,901 5,399 4.5% 4.1% 75-79 1,860 2,443 4,303 3.6% 3.4% 80-84 1,111 1,654 2,765 2.3% 2.4% 85-89 545 1,074 1,619 1.3% 1.4% 90+ 221 603 824 0.7% 0.7% All Ages 58,230 61,970 120,200 100% 100% Source: National Records of Scotland Ethnic Grouping Percentage of population. East Ayrshire % Scotland % White Scottish 94.22 88.09 Other White British 3.94 7.38 White Irish 0.57 0.98 Other White 0.59 1.54 Indian 0.07 0.30 Pakistani 0.14 0.63 Bangladeshi 0.00 0.04 Other South Asian 0.04 0.12 Chinese 0.18 0.32 Caribbean 0.01 0.04 African 0.02 0.10 Black Scottish or Other Black 0.01 0.02 Any Mixed Background 0.15 0.25 Other Ethnic Group 0.05 0.19 Source: National Records of Scotland (Census 2001) Analysis: In East Ayrshire, the ethnic minority population is significantly lower than Scotland for all ethnic minority groupings. In addition, in the 2011 Residents’ Survey, 94% of respondents said they are ‘White Scottish’, 5% said they are ‘White Other British’, 0.5% ‘Irish’ and 0.5% ‘Other Ethnic Background’. East Ayrshire Area Profile Projected Population Population in 1,000s (2010 based projections). East Ayrshire Scotland 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 All Ages 120.2 122.2 121.1 5,222.1 5,595.6 5,755.5 0-15 21.1 21.5 20.2 911.8 967.5 941.4 16-29 20.7 17.7 18.3 975.4 895.4 944.3 30-49 32.8 28.8 28.5 1,437.7 1,442.8 1,437.4 50-64 24.5 25.9 20.4 1,017.7 1,099.5 1,001.8 65-74 11.8 14.1 16.7 473.9 601.6 692.8 75+ 9.4 14.1 17.0 405.6 588.9 737.9 Source: National Records of Scotland Analysis: Contrary to previous trends, population projections indicate that the total population in East Ayrshire will remain relatively static between 2010 and 2035; however, by 2035 around 28% of the population will be 65 or over compared to 18% in 2010. Dependency Ratio Children aged 0-15 and people aged 65 and over as percentage of the working age population. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2001 56.2 54.1 2002 55.9 53.8 2003 55.4 53.5 2004 55.1 53.1 2005 54.7 52.9 2006 54.4 52.4 2007 54.0 52.1 2008 53.8 52.1 2009 53.9 52.2 2010 54.3 52.2 Source: National Records of Scotland, 2011 Analysis: Dependency ratio has remained relatively consistent over the last ten years, but is projected to increase significantly to 84% by 2035, demonstrating in particular the impact of an ageing population. East Ayrshire Area Profile Key Themes and Challenges: Promoting Lifelong Learning Education and Learning A key priority for the Partnership is to increase attainment in literacy and numeracy skills for children, young people and adults, in particular in relation to their importance in building the skills of the existing workforce and improving the employability of those seeking work. School leavers are often at disproportionate risk from reductions in employment opportunities. Within education, our efforts and available resources are directed at providing sustained destinations for our young people by strengthening the links between education and learning, and employability. To this end, we continue to work to build a strong partnership involving relevant universities, the local colleges, our secondary schools and business partners, the core aim of which is to develop an enterprising culture and ensure that our young people acquire the skills which are in demand in the labour market, particularly within East Ayrshire. As employment opportunities have declined, pressure has increased on education as a positive alternative. Curriculum for Excellence, a major educational reform, is designed to nurture successful, effective, confident and responsible young people, future-proofed for life in the 21st century and means that young people staying in education post-16 will develop a much greater range of skills and qualifications, which will equip them well for the world of work. Qualifications Percentage of working age people with no qualifications. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2007 21.3 13.9 2008 18.5 14.0 2009 17.5 13.3 2010 16.5 12.4 2011 17.1 11.6 Source: Annual Population Survey, Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates for working age people with no qualifications are declining; although are above the Scottish average. East Ayrshire Area Profile School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving English and Maths at SCQF Level 3 (Standard Grade Foundation) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 91 92 2007/09 90 92 2008/10 90 93 2009/11 91 93 2010/12 91 94 Source: Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates have remained consistent over the last five years and generally lower than the Scottish average. School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving 5+ Awards at SCQF Level 5 (Standard Grade Credit) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 44 48 2007/09 43 48 2008/10 44 49 2009/11 45 50 2010/12 47 53 Source: Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates have improved over the last four years but remain lower than the Scottish average. East Ayrshire Area Profile School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving 3+ Awards at SCQF Level 6 (Higher Grade) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 26 30 2007/09 25 30 2008/10 27 31 2009/11 29 33 2010/12 30 35 Source: Scottish Government Analysis: Ayrshire rates have improved over the last four years but remain lower than the Scottish average. School Leaver Destinations Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded secondary schools 2011/12. East Ayrshire % Scotland % Higher education 36.2 37.3 Further education 33.4 26.8 Training 5.5 4.6 Employment 14.6 19.8 Voluntary Work 0.3 0.4 Other destination (known) 10.1 9.7 Other destination (unknown) 0.0 0.4 Figures are subject to rounding and may not add up to totals for positive destinations. Source: Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools, Scottish Government Analysis: In East Ayrshire, 89.9 % of school leavers went into a positive destinations (education, employment, training, voluntary work) in 2011/12, in line with Scotland. A higher proportion (38.9%) of school leavers in East Ayrshire entered further education or training compared to those who entered employment (14.6%). East Ayrshire Area Profile Support for community groups and active citizenship In a move towards community resilience, Community Planning Partners will continue to build on existing arrangements to support the community and voluntary sector to plan, fund and manage appropriate projects/services, through which the benefit to community assets could be considerable. Going forward, the key workstream around ‘Transforming our relationship with communities’ provides a new approach focusing on empowering our communities and neighbourhoods and the need to move away from a culture of dependency to social integration, enhanced community cohesion, co-production and the promotion of local ownership, responsibility and participation. The Council’s new Supporting Vibrant Communities Team will have a key role in developing the capacity and resilience of communities in this regard. Over 500 community based organisations were supported to build community capacity in 2011/12. Source: East Ayrshire Council A total of 1,831 young people in East Ayrshire were involved in community learning opportunities in 2011/12. Source: East Ayrshire Council The two Federations of Community Groups are actively engaged in Community Planning and the ongoing development of the Single Outcome Agreement through involvement in the Community Planning Partnership Board. Source: East Ayrshire Council East Ayrshire Area Profile Strategic Priorities and Challenges: Delivering Community Regeneration The Economy Community Planning Partners are committed to developing the economy as a whole and achieving sustainable economic growth, with a particular focus on business and industry as well as maximising the opportunities available to East Ayrshire in terms of its natural and built environment, its heritage and culture, and its location in relation to regional assets, such as areas of business growth and new jobs. In addition, tourism has a significant contribution to make to developing the East Ayrshire economy in terms of both revenue and jobs.
Appears in 3 contracts
Samples: Housing and Homelessness, Housing and Homelessness, Housing and Homelessness
Population Projections. Contrary to previous trends, the latest available estimates indicate that the population of East Ayrshire is likely to remain relatively static between 2010 and 2035. By contrast, the population of Scotland is projected to increase by 10.2% between 2010 and 2035. East Ayrshire’s population is ageing significantly, with the local working age population (16-64) projected to fall by 13.8% between 2010 and 2035, compared with a relatively static working age population across Scotland. These statistics are compounded by the fact that the over 65 population is expected to increase significantly over the same timeframe. It is estimated that the number of residents aged 65 and over in East Ayrshire will increase by 59%, and will account for around 28% of the total population by 2035, compared to 18% in 2010. Over the 25 year period, the age group that is projected to increase the most in size in East Ayrshire is the 75+ age group. This is the same as Scotland as a whole. The population aged under 16 years in East Ayrshire is projected to decline by 4.3% between 2010 to 2035. Source: National Records of Scotland: East Ayrshire Council Demographic Area – Demographic Factsheet, December 2012 East Ayrshire Area Profile Age Structure Mid year estimates 2011. Age Male Female All East Ayrshire Scotland 5-9 3,251 3,126 6,377 5.3% 5.2% 10-14 4,082 3,814 7,896 6.6% 6.5% 15-19 3,169 2,965 6,134 5.1% 4.9% 20-24 4,037 3,756 7,793 6.5% 7.0% 25-29 3,449 3,420 6,869 5.7% 6.8% 30-34 2,873 3,226 6,099 5.1% 6.1% 35-39 3,559 3,695 7,254 6.0% 6.1% 40-44 4,424 4,895 9,319 7.8% 7.3% 45-49 4,563 4,974 9,537 7.9% 7.7% 50-54 4,168 4,567 8,735 7.3% 7.1% 55-59 3,700 3,928 7,628 6.3% 6.2% 60-64 4,142 4,252 8,394 7.0% 6.3% 65-69 3,098 3,412 6,510 5.4% 5.0% 70-74 2,498 2,901 5,399 4.5% 4.1% 75-79 1,860 2,443 4,303 3.6% 3.4% 80-84 1,111 1,654 2,765 2.3% 2.4% 85-89 545 1,074 1,619 1.3% 1.4% 90+ 221 603 824 0.7% 0.7% All Ages 58,230 61,970 120,200 100% 100% Source: National Records of Scotland Ethnic Grouping Percentage of population. East Ayrshire % Scotland % White Scottish 94.22 88.09 Other White British 3.94 7.38 White Irish 0.57 0.98 Other White 0.59 1.54 Indian 0.07 0.30 Pakistani 0.14 0.63 Bangladeshi 0.00 0.04 Other South Asian 0.04 0.12 Chinese 0.18 0.32 Caribbean 0.01 0.04 African 0.02 0.10 Black Scottish or Other Black 0.01 0.02 Any Mixed Background 0.15 0.25 Other Ethnic Group 0.05 0.19 Source: National Records of Scotland (Census 2001) • Analysis: In East Ayrshire, the ethnic minority population is significantly lower than Scotland for all ethnic minority groupings. In addition, in the 2011 Residents’ Survey, 94% of respondents said they are ‘White Scottish’, 5% said they are ‘White Other British’, 0.5% ‘Irish’ and 0.5% ‘Other Ethnic Background’. East Ayrshire Area Profile Projected Population Population in 1,000s (2010 based projections). East Ayrshire Scotland 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 All Ages 120.2 122.2 121.1 5,222.1 5,595.6 5,755.5 0-15 21.1 21.5 20.2 911.8 967.5 941.4 16-29 20.7 17.7 18.3 975.4 895.4 944.3 30-49 32.8 28.8 28.5 1,437.7 1,442.8 1,437.4 50-64 24.5 25.9 20.4 1,017.7 1,099.5 1,001.8 65-74 11.8 14.1 16.7 473.9 601.6 692.8 75+ 9.4 14.1 17.0 405.6 588.9 737.9 Source: National Records of Scotland • Analysis: Contrary to previous trends, population projections indicate that the total population in East Ayrshire will remain relatively static between 2010 and 2035; however, by 2035 around 28% of the population will be 65 or over compared to 18% in 2010. Dependency Ratio Children aged 0-15 and people aged 65 and over as percentage of the working age population. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2001 56.2 54.1 2002 55.9 53.8 2003 55.4 53.5 2004 55.1 53.1 2005 54.7 52.9 2006 54.4 52.4 2007 54.0 52.1 2008 53.8 52.1 2009 53.9 52.2 2010 54.3 52.2 Source: National Records of Scotland, 2011 • Analysis: Dependency ratio has remained relatively consistent over the last ten years, but is projected to increase significantly to 84% by 2035, demonstrating in particular the impact of an ageing population. East Ayrshire Area Profile Key Themes and Challenges: Promoting Lifelong Learning Education and Learning A key priority for the Partnership is to increase attainment in literacy and numeracy skills for children, young people and adults, in particular in relation to their importance in building the skills of the existing workforce and improving the employability of those seeking work. School leavers are often at disproportionate risk from reductions in employment opportunities. Within education, our efforts and available resources are directed at providing sustained destinations for our young people by strengthening the links between education and learning, and employability. To this end, we continue to work to build a strong partnership involving relevant universities, the local colleges, our secondary schools and business partners, the core aim of which is to develop an enterprising culture and ensure that our young people acquire the skills which are in demand in the labour market, particularly within East Ayrshire. As employment opportunities have declined, pressure has increased on education as a positive alternative. Curriculum for Excellence, a major educational reform, is designed to nurture successful, effective, confident and responsible young people, future-proofed for life in the 21st century and means that young people staying in education post-16 will develop a much greater range of skills and qualifications, which will equip them well for the world of work. Qualifications Percentage of working age people with no qualifications. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2007 21.3 13.9 2008 18.5 14.0 2009 17.5 13.3 2010 16.5 12.4 2011 17.1 11.6 Source: Annual Population Survey, Scottish Government • Analysis: East Ayrshire rates for working age people with no qualifications are declining; although are above the Scottish average. East Ayrshire Area Profile School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving English and Maths at SCQF Level 3 (Standard Grade Foundation) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 91 92 2007/09 90 92 2008/10 90 93 2009/11 91 93 2010/12 91 94 Source: Scottish Government • Analysis: East Ayrshire rates have remained consistent over the last five years and generally lower than the Scottish average. School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving 5+ Awards at SCQF Level 5 (Standard Grade Credit) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 44 48 2007/09 43 48 2008/10 44 49 2009/11 45 50 2010/12 47 53 Source: Scottish Government • Analysis: East Ayrshire rates have improved over the last four years but remain lower than the Scottish average. East Ayrshire Area Profile School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving 3+ Awards at SCQF Level 6 (Higher Grade) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 26 30 2007/09 25 30 2008/10 27 31 2009/11 29 33 2010/12 30 35 Source: Scottish Government • Analysis: Ayrshire rates have improved over the last four years but remain lower than the Scottish average. School Leaver Destinations Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded secondary schools 2011/12. East Ayrshire % Scotland % Higher education 36.2 37.3 Further education 33.4 26.8 Training 5.5 4.6 Employment 14.6 19.8 Voluntary Work 0.3 0.4 Other destination (known) 10.1 9.7 Other destination (unknown) 0.0 0.4 Figures are subject to rounding and may not add up to totals for positive destinations. Source: Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools, Scottish Government • Analysis: In East Ayrshire, 89.9 % of school leavers went into a positive destinations (education, employment, training, voluntary work) in 2011/12, in line with Scotland. A higher proportion (38.9%) of school leavers in East Ayrshire entered further education or training compared to those who entered employment (14.6%). East Ayrshire Area Profile Support for community groups and active citizenship In a move towards community resilience, Community Planning Partners will continue to build on existing arrangements to support the community and voluntary sector to plan, fund and manage appropriate projects/services, through which the benefit to community assets could be considerable. Going forward, the key workstream around ‘Transforming our relationship with communities’ provides a new approach focusing on empowering our communities and neighbourhoods and the need to move away from a culture of dependency to social integration, enhanced community cohesion, co-production and the promotion of local ownership, responsibility and participation. The Council’s new Supporting Vibrant Communities Team will have a key role in developing the capacity and resilience of communities in this regard. • Over 500 community based organisations were supported to build community capacity in 2011/12. Source: East Ayrshire Council • A total of 1,831 young people in East Ayrshire were involved in community learning opportunities in 2011/12. Source: East Ayrshire Council • The two Federations of Community Groups are actively engaged in Community Planning and the ongoing development of the Single Outcome Agreement through involvement in the Community Planning Partnership Board. Source: East Ayrshire Council East Ayrshire Area Profile Strategic Priorities and Challenges: Delivering Community Regeneration The Economy Community Planning Partners are committed to developing the economy as a whole and achieving sustainable economic growth, with a particular focus on business and industry as well as maximising the opportunities available to East Ayrshire in terms of its natural and built environment, its heritage and culture, and its location in relation to regional assets, such as areas of business growth and new jobs. In addition, tourism has a significant contribution to make to developing the East Ayrshire economy in terms of both revenue and jobs.
Appears in 2 contracts
Samples: Single Outcome Agreement, docs.east-ayrshire.gov.uk
Population Projections. Contrary to previous trends, the latest available estimates indicate that the population of East Ayrshire is likely to remain relatively static between 2010 2008 and 20352033. By contrast, the The population of Scotland is projected to increase by 10.27.3% between 2010 2008 and 20352033. East Ayrshire’s population is ageing significantly, with the local working age population (16-64) projected to fall by 13.86.6% between 2010 2008 and 20352033, compared with a relatively static working age population 2.2% increase across Scotland. These statistics are compounded by the fact that the over 65 direction of population change varies across age bands; there is expected to be a more significant decline in both the 16-29 and 30-49 age groups, continuing the increase significantly over in the same timeframeageing population in East Ayrshire. It In addition, it is estimated that the number proportion of residents aged 65 and over in East Ayrshire those of pensionable age will increase to around 27% by 59%, and will account for around 28% of the total population by 20352033, compared to 1817% in 20102008. Over the 25 year period, the age group that is projected to increase the most in size in East Ayrshire is the 75+ age group. This is the same as Scotland as a whole. The population aged under 16 years in East Ayrshire is projected to decline by 4.38% between 2010 2008 to 20352033. Source: National Records of General Register Office for Scotland: East Ayrshire Council Demographic Area – Demographic Factsheet, December 2012 East Ayrshire Area Profile 2010 Age Structure Mid year estimates 20112009. Age Male Female All East Ayrshire Scotland 5-9 3,251 3,126 6,377 3,182 3,144 6,326 5.3% 5.2% 10-14 4,082 3,814 7,896 6.63,598 3,231 6,829 5.7% 6.55.6% 15-19 3,169 2,965 6,134 5.14,031 3,930 7,930 6.6% 4.96.3% 20-24 4,037 3,756 7,793 6.53,944 3,716 7,660 6.4% 7.06.9% 25-29 3,449 3,420 6,869 5.73,148 3,282 6,430 5.3% 6.86.6% 30-34 2,873 3,226 6,099 5.13,055 3,269 6,324 5.3% 6.15.8% 35-39 3,559 3,695 7,254 6.03,845 4,167 8,012 6.7% 6.16.7% 40-44 4,424 4,895 9,319 7.84,671 5,088 9,759 8.1% 7.37.7% 45-49 4,563 4,974 9,537 7.94,358 4,832 9,190 7.6% 7.7% 50-54 4,168 4,567 8,735 7.34,049 4,284 8,333 6.9% 7.16.9% 55-59 3,700 3,928 7,628 6.33,908 3,944 7,852 6.5% 6.2% 60-64 4,142 4,252 8,394 7.03,923 4,193 8,116 6.8% 6.36.2% 65-69 3,098 3,412 6,510 5.42,956 3,334 6,290 5.2% 5.04.9% 70-74 2,498 2,901 5,399 4.52,482 2,849 5,331 4.4% 4.14.2% 75-79 1,860 2,443 4,303 3.61,766 2,435 4,201 3.5% 3.4% 80-84 1,111 1,654 2,765 1,070 1,601 2,671 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 85-89 545 1,074 1,619 523 1,061 1,584 1.3% 1.4% 90+ 221 603 824 0.7000 000 000 0.6% 0.70.6% All Ages 58,230 61,970 120,200 10058,145 62,065 120,210 100.0% 100100.0% Source: National Records General Register Office for Scotland Mid Year Estimates 2009 Projected Population Population in 1,000s (2008 based projections). East Ayrshire Scotland 2008 2023 2033 2008 2023 2033 All Ages 119.9 121.6 119.9 5,168.5 5,442.3 5,544.4 0-15 21.5 21.3 19.8 913.5 933.0 899.8 16-29 20.2 17.5 17.5 953.0 868.8 889.0 30-49 33.8 28.8 28.5 1,457.3 1,368.2 1,372.4 50-64 24.0 26.6 21.3 988.2 1,116.8 972.4 65-74 11.5 13.8 16.2 463.4 585.4 685.3 75+ 9.0 13.5 16.6 393.2 570.0 723.6 Source: General Register Office for Scotland Analysis: Contrary to previous trends, population projections indicate that the total population in East Ayrshire will remain relatively static between 2008 and 2033; however, by 2033 around 27% of the population will be 65 or over compared to 17% in 2008. Deaths Standardised Death rate per 1,000 population. East Ayrshire Scotland Rate per 1,000 population 2000 10.8 10.4 2001 10.5 10.4 2002 10.1 10.1 2003 10.9 10.4 2004 11.2 10.6 2005 11.2 10.7 2006 11.8 10.9 2007 11.7 11.2 2008 12.3 11.6 2009 12.2 11.4 East Ayrshire Scotland Rate per 1,000 population 2000 11.8 11.3 2001 12.5 11.3 2002 12.0 11.5 2003 12.9 11.6 2004 11.4 11.1 2005 12.4 10.9 2006 11.3 10.8 2007 11.7 10.9 2008 11.5 10.8 2009 11.0 10.4 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 East Ayrshire Scotland Source: General Register Office for Scotland Analysis: Death rates in East Ayrshire have been consistently worse than the Scottish rate, although the extent of the difference has varied over the years. Births Standardised Birth rate per 1,000 population. 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 East Ayrshire Scotland Source: Source: General Register Office for Scotland Analysis: Birth rates in East Ayrshire have generally been just above the Scottish rate, with a gradual increase after 2002. Ethnic Grouping Percentage of population. East Ayrshire % Scotland % White Scottish 94.22 88.09 Other White British 3.94 7.38 White Irish 0.57 0.98 Other White 0.59 1.54 Indian 0.07 0.30 Pakistani 0.14 0.63 Bangladeshi 0.00 0.04 Other South Asian 0.04 0.12 Chinese 0.18 0.32 Caribbean 0.01 0.04 African 0.02 0.10 Black Scottish or Other Black 0.01 0.02 Any Mixed Background 0.15 0.25 Other Ethnic Group 0.05 0.19 Source: National Records of General Register Office for Scotland (Census 2001) Analysis: In East Ayrshire, the ethnic minority population is significantly lower than Scotland for all ethnic minority groupings. In addition, in the 2011 2008 Residents’ Survey, 9496% of respondents said they are ‘White Scottish’, 53% said they are ‘White Other British’, 0.5% ‘Irish’ and 0.5% ‘Other Ethnic Background’. East Ayrshire Area Profile Projected Population Population in 1,000s (2010 based projections). East Ayrshire Scotland 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 All Ages 120.2 122.2 121.1 5,222.1 5,595.6 5,755.5 0-15 21.1 21.5 20.2 911.8 967.5 941.4 16-29 20.7 17.7 18.3 975.4 895.4 944.3 30-49 32.8 28.8 28.5 1,437.7 1,442.8 1,437.4 50-64 24.5 25.9 20.4 1,017.7 1,099.5 1,001.8 65-74 11.8 14.1 16.7 473.9 601.6 692.8 75+ 9.4 14.1 17.0 405.6 588.9 737.9 Source: National Records of Scotland Analysis: Contrary to previous trends, population projections indicate that the total population in East Ayrshire will remain relatively static between 2010 and 2035; however, by 2035 around 28% of the population will be 65 or over compared to 18% in 2010. Dependency Ratio Children aged 0-15 and people aged 65 and over as percentage of the working age population. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2001 56.2 54.1 2002 55.9 53.8 2003 55.4 53.5 2004 55.1 53.1 2005 54.7 52.9 2006 54.4 52.4 2007 54.0 52.1 2008 53.8 52.1 2009 53.9 52.2 2010 54.3 52.2 Source: National Records of Scotland, 2011 Analysis: Dependency ratio has remained relatively consistent over the last ten years, but is projected to increase significantly to 84% by 2035, demonstrating in particular the impact of an ageing population. East Ayrshire Area Profile Key Themes and Challenges: Promoting Lifelong Learning Education and Learning A key priority for the Partnership is to increase attainment in literacy and numeracy skills for children, young people and adults, in particular in relation to their importance in building the skills of the existing workforce and improving the employability of those seeking work. School leavers are often at disproportionate risk from reductions in employment opportunities. Within education, our efforts and available resources are directed at providing sustained destinations for our young people by strengthening the links between education and learning, and employability. To this end, we continue to work are working to build a strong partnership involving relevant universitiesthe University of the West of Scotland, the local colleges, our secondary schools and business partners, the core aim of which is to develop an enterprising culture and ensure that our young people acquire the skills which are in demand in the labour market, particularly within East Ayrshire. As employment opportunities have declined, pressure has increased on education as a positive alternative. Curriculum for Excellence, a major educational reform, is designed to nurture successful, effective, confident and responsible young people, future-proofed for life in the 21st century and means that young people staying in education post-16 will develop a much greater range of skills and qualifications, which will equip them well for the world of work. The following statistical information is significant in relation to education, skills and training: Attainment in our local schools continues to improve, with reading, writing and maths skills reaching levels of 84%, 77% and 86% in primary schools in 2009/10 compared to 79%, 71% and 83% in 2006/07. Source: East Ayrshire Council 88% of East Ayrshire pupils passed Standard Grade English and Maths by the time that they left secondary school in 2009/10, compared to 92% in Scotland. Source: East Ayrshire Council 1,569 adult learners in East Ayrshire were assisted with adult literacy and numeracy skills in 2009/10, compared with 1,095 in 2008/09. Source: East Ayrshire Council 84% of students completed further education/higher education courses in local colleges in East Ayrshire in 2008/09, in line with the national average. Source: Scottish Funding Council 12.7% of residents of East Ayrshire have degree/professional qualifications in 2009, compared to 21% in Scotland. Source: Annual Population Survey, Scottish Government 88% of school leavers in East Ayrshire entered positive destinations in 2009/10, compared to 87% in Scotland; 14.4% went into employment, compared to 18.5% in Scotland. Source: Destinations of `Leavers from Scottish Schools, Scottish Government Qualifications East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2004 21.7 15.7 2005 22.4 14.7 2006 18.6 13.7 2007 21.1 13.6 2008 16.7 12.6 2009 16.2 12.3 Percentage of working age people with no qualifications. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2007 21.3 13.9 2008 18.5 14.0 2009 17.5 13.3 2010 16.5 12.4 2011 17.1 11.6 Source: Annual Population Survey, Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates for working age people with no qualifications are declining; although are above the Scottish average. East Ayrshire Area Profile School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving English and Maths in 4th Year at SCQF Level 3 (Standard Grade Foundation) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 91 92 2007/09 90 92 2008/10 90 93 2009/11 91 93 2010/12 91 94 Source: Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates have remained consistent over the last five years and generally lower than the Scottish average. School Qualifications Percentage of pupils secondary school, achieving 5+ Awards at SCQF Level 5 (Standard Grade Credit) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average)better. East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 44 48 2007/09 43 48 2008/10 44 49 2009/11 45 50 2010/12 47 53 2005/06 33 35 2006/07 28 33 2007/08 29 34 2008/09 32 35 2009/10 29 36 40 30 20 10 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 East Ayrshire Scotland 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 East Ayrshire Scotland Source: Annual Population Survey, Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates have improved over the last four years but remain lower than for working age people with no qualifications are above the Scottish average; however, declining in line with the Scottish trend. East Ayrshire Area Profile School Qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving 3+ Awards at SCQF Level 6 (Higher Grade) or better by the end of S6 (3 year average). East Ayrshire % Scotland % 2006/08 26 30 2007/09 25 30 2008/10 27 31 2009/11 29 33 2010/12 30 35 Source: Scottish Government Analysis: East Ayrshire rates are generally lower than Scotland. In addition, in the 2008 Community Planning Residents’ Survey 24% of respondents said they have an Ordinary Grade, Standard Grade, GCSE, CSE, Senior Certificate or equivalent. Achievement in Primary Schools (P3/4 and P6/7) Percentage of pupils attaining or exceeding level relevant to their stage in National 5-14 tests. 5-14 Years Achievement – Secondary Schools Percentage of pupils attaining or exceeding level relevant to their stage in National 5-14 tests. Reading % Writing % Maths % 2003/04 78.0 71.0 80.0 2004/05 77.6 70 83.7 2005/06 77.7 70.9 83.1 2006/07 79.3 71.4 83.3 2007/08 80.0 73.3 83.7 2008/09 81.8 75.1 84.7 2009/10 84 77.3 86.3 Reading % Writing % Maths % 2003/04 65.5 50.4 61.7 2004/05 62.4 46 60.2 2005/06 64.6 46.7 60.9 2006/07 66.7 49.8 68.9 2007/08 63.1 48.5 67.8 2008/09 71.2 53.8 70.9 2009/10 75.6 55.4 71.7 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Reading Writing Maths 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Reading Writing Maths Source: East Ayrshire Council Analysis: East Ayrshire rates for primary school 5-14 achievement have improved over the last four years but remain lower than the Scottish averagetime. School Leaver Destinations Percentage of Source: East Ayrshire Council Analysis: East Ayrshire rates for secondary school leavers from publicly funded secondary schools 2011/125-14 achievement are improving over time. Support for community groups and active citizenship: East Ayrshire % Scotland % Higher education 36.2 37.3 33.7 35.7 Further education 33.4 26.8 31.6 27.1 Training 5.5 4.6 8.5 5.2 Employment 14.6 19.8 14.4 18.5 Voluntary Work 0.1 0.3 0.4 Other destination (known) Unemployed Seeking Work 10.1 9.7 Other destination (unknown) 0.0 0.4 Figures are subject to rounding and may not add up to totals for positive destinations. Source: Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools, Scottish Government Analysis: In East Ayrshire, 89.9 % of school leavers went into a positive destinations (education, employment, training, voluntary work) in 2011/12, in line with Scotland. A higher proportion (38.9%) of school leavers in East Ayrshire entered further education or training compared to those who entered employment (14.6%). East Ayrshire Area Profile Support for community groups and active citizenship 11.3 Unemployed Not Seeking Work 1.5 1.3 Unknown 0.1 0.6 In a move towards community resilience, Community Planning Partners will continue to build on existing arrangements to support the community and voluntary sector to plan, fund and manage appropriate projects/services, through which the benefit to community assets could be considerable. Going forward, the key workstream around ‘Transforming our relationship with communities’ provides a new approach focusing on empowering our communities and neighbourhoods and the need to move away from a culture of dependency to social integration, enhanced community cohesion, co-production and the promotion of local ownership, responsibility and participation. The Council’s new Supporting Vibrant Communities Team will have a key role in developing the capacity and resilience of communities in this regard. Over 500 542 community based organisations were supported to build community capacity in 2011/122009/10. Source: East Ayrshire Council A total of 1,831 511 young people in East Ayrshire were involved participated in community learning opportunities active citizenship activities in 2011/122009/10, compared to 203 young people in 2008/09 and 66 young people in 2006/07. Source: East Ayrshire Council The two Federations of Community Groups are actively engaged systematically involved in Community Planning and the ongoing development of the Single Outcome Agreement through involvement in the Community Planning Partnership Board. Both of these organisations manage their office premises independently. Source: East Ayrshire Council 89% of respondents stated that they had not undertaken work on a voluntary basis at any time in the past 12 months. In East Ayrshire, respondents aged 60-64 years were most likely to have undertaken any voluntary work, 13% having done so. Source: East Ayrshire Area Profile Strategic Priorities and Challenges: Delivering Community Regeneration The Economy Community Planning Partners are committed to developing the economy as a whole and achieving sustainable economic growthResidents’ Survey, with a particular focus on business and industry as well as maximising the opportunities available to 2008 School Leaver Destinations Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded secondary schools 2009/10. Higher Education Further Education Entering Training Entering Employment Voluntary Work Unemployed seeking work Umeployed not seeking work Unknown East Ayrshire in terms of its natural and built environment, its heritage and culture, and its location in relation to regional assets, such as areas of business growth and new jobs. In addition, tourism has a significant contribution to make to developing the East Ayrshire economy in terms of both revenue and jobs.Scotland 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%
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Samples: docs.east-ayrshire.gov.uk
