Prequential definition
Prequential means "predictive sequential". In this talk I will give an outline of the fundamental ideas of prequential Probability and Statistics. Consider a sequential game between two players, Forecaster and Nature. A conventional probability model can be constructed by ascribing suitable strategies to each player. The prequential approach concentrates, instead, on the sequences of choices made by each player, and attempts to see what can be said under weak, or absent, assumptions about underlying strategies. By considering suitable criteria for the "agreement" between forecasts and outcomes, we obtain a new game-theoretic construction of Probability Theory. Similarly, a standard statistical model can be considered as a strategy for a parametrised collection of "experts". Prequential Statistics focuses attention on the actual forecasts issued, eschewing, so far as possible, further assumptions about underlying strategies. I shall argue that little of value is lost, and much insight is gained, by imposing such constraints.
Examples of Prequential in a sentence
Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistical Theory: The Prequential Approach.