Common use of Scenarios predicting population changes Clause in Contracts

Scenarios predicting population changes. Presenting a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario is important because this presents how the population would change in the absence of the foreseen conservation or management actions. This can demonstrate how the conservation status of a declining species is likely to deteriorate in the future and how that may affect its use, if there is any. This can emphasise the urgency of implementing the Plan and this can be used effectively to inform donors and other decision-makers. This can be produced before the workshop. Developing an ‘implementation’ scenario helps to establish realistic conservation targets both in terms of population parameters and in terms of the scale of intervention needed to achieve the desired future state of the population. During the planning phase, different scenarios can be used to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of different conservation scenarios and help choosing the most effective conservation strategy. This can be produced during or after the workshop and should inform the indicators for the goals and purpose.