Demand Modelling - Orthopaedic Surgery Sample Clauses

Demand Modelling - Orthopaedic Surgery. Introduction This section of the IA provides for each orthopaedic sub specialty an overview of:  Current activity (2015 data) by procedure by Health Board of treatment  Various demand modelling scenarios which project activity forecasts between now and 2035, these scenarios are based on:  forecast population change only  forecast population change plus various increased rates of intervention (based on previous years growth rates in intervention)  A summary by sub speciality of the required additional activity by 2035, assuming a minimum clinical productivity improvement within WoS hospitals of 10%. Methodology  Activity includes elective only procedures performed as either day case or inpatient procedures. (all emergency admissions / procedures/ inter hospital transfers have been excluded).  Data was further reviewed to exclude any diagnostic testing – e.g. blood testing, imaging, spinal anaesthesia, etc  Procedures performed on patients under the age of 16 were excluded  Age at time of intervention by proportion of patients was provided by ISD and or GJF ( where the procedure is currently performed in high volume at the GJF)  All remaining activity was classified/categorised using OPCS 4 codes – using the primary procedure code and the paired code to identify the anatomical site) (see appendix 13). Primary Arthroplasty - Current Activity – 2015 (Source ISD SAP data) Figure 20 summarises the primary arthroplasty undertaken by each Health Board in 2015. Figure 20: 2015 Primary Arthroplasty Activity by Board of Treatment Comparison of GJF Demand Modelling and Demand Modelling GJF have undertaken detailed demand modelling exercises for the full range of orthopaedic sub specialties. In parallel ISD have also developed population growth only modelling exercise to predict the impact of population growth alone on the demand for primary hip and primary knee replacement. There are a number of differences between the ISD demand modelling and the GJF demand modelling exercises. The difference in the methodologies are as follows:  Baseline year– ISD model assumes a three year average (2014, 2015, 2016) as the baseline year – whereas GJF have assumed the calendar year of 2015, as the baseline year.  Given that primary Hip and Primary knee replacement activity has risen year on year this means the baseline for ISD modelling is significantly lower than the GJF modelling.  ISD modelling includes population growth +/- a 5% tolerance, it does not model the full...
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