Demand Modelling - General Surgery Sample Clauses

Demand Modelling - General Surgery and Urology Detailed demand modelling has been undertaken for general surgery and urology using population forecast data and looking at previous year’s activity trends. The age profile of patients’ at time of intervention for general surgery and urology is very different to that of patients undergoing TKR or THR, with approx 30 – 40% of general surgery patients being aged over 60 at the time of intervention and 50 – 60% of urology patients aged over 60 at time of intervention, (whereas 80% THR and 84% of TKR patients are over 60 years old at time of intervention). Therefore, given the main demographic change between now and 2035 is the significant increase in the number of people aged over 60 , it is assumed that any forecast increase in demand for general surgery or urology will not be as significant as the demand in orthopaedics. It is important to note that GJF does not currently provide a Urology service, given the sub specialist nature of the service and the significant work that has already been undertaken to develop a regional model for urology services, it may not be considered appropriate for the GJF to also provide elective urology services. However in order to ensure a full assessment is made of the forecast future elective demand for the West region, both general surgery and urology demand modelling has been undertaken. It is therefore assumed that the predicted future urology demand will be considered as the regional model is developed and it is likely to be provided within the existing hospitals providing urology services. Figure 65 illustrates the change in general surgery activity between 2005 and 2015 Overall general surgery activity has risen by 17.7%. This shift is most likely due to:  The gradual increase in elderly acute admissions as the elderly population has grown has led to increase emergency general surgical procedures  a change of practice, a key change being the move to undertaking more ‘hot’ or ‘acute’ gall bladder operations , where previously patients would have been discharged home and brought back in to hospital as an elective patient. In addition to the increasing emergency pressures, elective pressures have also grown. Over the last 5 years within colorectal surgery there has been a move towards laprascopic surgery as opposed to undertaking ‘open’ procedures. Where once there would be four major colorectal procedures undertaken on an all day theatre list there are now 2 major cases and 1 or 2 minor cases undertaken. Ove...
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